January 6, 2021

In the previous essay, Two Types of Conservatism: Conformity and Dominance, I described two measurement scales. One, the RWA scale (right wing authoritarianism), measures a passive conforming type of conservatism. The second, the SDO scale (social dominance orientation), measures an aggressive, dominating type. The present essay describes how one survey researcher used these scales to predict the likelihood of and the necessary conditions for the January 6, 2021 storming of our federal Capitol.

In late 2019 the Monmouth University Polling Institute conducted public polling that included scoring on both the RWA and the SDO scales. This was done in conjunction with former Nixon White House Counsel John Dean and Dr. Robert Altemeyer in support of their book “Authoritarian Nightmare.” The contract between the authors and the institute provided that Monmouth would have rights to veto questions that didn’t meet their standards, and to write and publish independent analysis of the results. That analysis is reported in two blog entries, “Authoritarian Tendencies in the American Electorate (Part One),” 08/25/2002, Patrick Murray, and “Authoritarianism Among Pro- and Anti-Trump Voters (Part Two),” 08/25/202, Patrick Murray.

The survey was a look into the beliefs and attitudes of American voters, Trump voters in particular, along the authoritarian and dominance dimensions that I've been writing about. As researchers will do, the Monmouth team worked on two levels, testing and honing their survey scales while collecting information about their subjects. Patrick Murray, the scientist designing the survey, jiggered the RWA scale to reduce its "sexual morality" component and increase its reading of attitudes about authoritarian leadership. He obtained an RWA measure that used fewer questions but obtained results similar to the full RWA. The survey collected measurements of RWA, SDO, Religious Fundamentalism, and Prejudice around race and religion.

Among the approximately one thousand respondents, there was a high correlation between RWA and Religious Fundamentalism (r = .83) and between RWA and Prejudice (r = .84). RWA correlated .68 with SDO, which is a much higher level than has often been reported. This higher correlation may be due to the fact that the Monmouth surveys were of American voters while many other studies have used college students. Prejudice correlated at r = .65 with Religious Fundamentalism, so Prejudice was linked more closely to RWA than to Religious Fundamentalism. SDO had an r = .80 with Prejudice and r = .50 with Religious Fundamentalism.

Among other survey results, Murray's blog postings report on the RWA and SDO levels of Trump's supporters:

RWA and SDO versus approval for Trump in Fall 2019

Almost nobody had an indifferent opinion about Trump's performance. Both RWA and SDO increase along with approval for Trump. RWA increases more rapidly across the row than does SDO. (A note about correlation: Correlation is a measure of how consistently RWA or SDO increase with approval. By eyeball, SDO and RWA appear about equally correlated with approval. The rate at which they increase is a different parameter, often called "beta" or slope.)

One in eight of the survey respondents was in the top quartile of both RWA and SDO. Of these, 89% were solidly pro-Trump. Among those high (in the top quartile) in RWA but not in SDO, 74% were solidly pro-Trump. Among those high in SDO but not in RWA, 58% were solidly pro-Trump. RWAs, in simpler but less precise language, seem to like Trump more than SDOs do.

The survey included a question which asked respondents what should happen if Trump lost and declared the election “fixed and crooked.” (The survey happened in Fall of 2019.) Seven percent of all respondents agreed that he should continue in office, another ten percent were merely neutral about that idea. Among double-highs (those in the top quartile of both RWA and SDO), 23% agreed and 24% were neutral. Among those high in RWA but not in SDO, 19% agreed and 15% were neutral. Among those high in SDO but not RWA, 5% agreed and 16% were neutral.

Murray commented:

“…these results do suggest that Trump does retain a core base of high RWA/SDO voters who might take to the ramparts for him and another group of high RWA voters who will tacitly offer their support….Such situations seem to require a perfect storm of social uncertainty and economic volatility, but also seem to depend on the willingness of political leaders to cravenly play on those fears—or stand idly by while others do this.” 8/25/2020

Murray presented more findings in his second post about this survey.

RWA and SDO for all respondents

RWA scores range from 20 to 180, with a “neutral” score of 100. The SDO scores shown have been rescaled to span the same range.

Among just Republicans, RWA and SDO levels are consistent across demographic factors (age, gender, education, racial identity), with the two exceptions that younger Republicans are substantially lower in RWA than older ones, and that those with a college degree are substantially lower in RWA than those without. Among Democrats there is a similar consistency, with the two exceptions that those with no college are substantially higher in RWA, and that white Democrats are substantially less authoritarian than non-white Democrats. (This suggests to this author that non-white Democrats may be more selectively supportive of Democratic policy planks.)

The survey was conducted in Fall of 2019, before the Democratic candidate was chosen. Among Democratic respondents RWA scores were highest for Biden supporters, lower for Sanders and Buttigieg, and lowest for Warren supporters.

All respondents were asked about their preferred Democratic candidate. Thirty-two respondents named Tulsi Gabbard as their preferred Democratic candidate, none of whom identified as Democrats. Their average RWA was close to the average among Republicans. (She was campaigning in the wrong party. Wonder if we'll ever hear from her again.)

The survey included another special question, which proposed that the Constitution should be ignored if it interfered with desired actions. Overall six percent of respondents agreed that it should be ignored, while sixty-nine percent strongly disagreed. Willingness to ignore the Constitution was highest among those least authoritarian. The strongest Trump supporters disagreed most strongly about ignoring our Constitution. (They're vehement people!) Democrats and independents were twice as likely to agree to subvert it as were Republicans. Dr. Murray believes that Democrats are not in fact more willing to ignore the Constitution, but more likely to understand that there are checks contained within it and more willing to admit their willingness to tamper with it. He seems to put evidentiary weight on the observed willingness of the right wing to tolerate Trump’s transgressions.

Next: The Motivation for Conservatism

More information:

[Duckitt 2015] “Authoritarian Personality,” John Duckitt, 2015, from “International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences,” 2nd edition, Oxford: Elsevier

Table of Contents

Glossary/Index

Bibliography

© 2021, Ross A. Hangartner